Still Strong

By Cassie Fish, http://cassandrafish.com 

CME cattle futures are posting a second consecutive strong up day after a two day break, nothing to alter the technical picture convincingly, but plenty to encourage bulls. Futures discount to cash prices and the cash cattle market’s reluctance to break currently is a simple and accurate explanation as to the market’s resilience.

Tomorrow is a holiday for packing plants and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Will the negotiated fed cattle trade get underway this afternoon or will it wait until Friday? There are a few bids about at a little lower money but cattle feeders are willing to wait until after the holiday. Texas is bid $188, eastern Nebraska $310 dressed, and Kansas was bid $186 to $188 earlier.

That leaves the boxed beef trade, which printed a touch lower this morning after making new highs for 2024 yesterday. Expectations are that the rib and loin will weaken some in July seasonally, but this week’s expected smaller-than-a-typical-July 4th slaughter thanks to a plant being dark, has supported values well past a normal seasonal top. The week-to-date slaughter is even with a week ago at 353,000 head so far but the weekly total is estimated from 490k to 520k head. 2016 saw a 514k slaughter and 2014 a 493k head.

Happy July 4th to all our readers. Have a safe and celebratory holiday.

 

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