Still Dragging On

By Cassie Fish, http://cassandrafish.com

Packers are still picking around the edges today attempting to add to their inventory. Trade from $117.50 to $118 has occurred in spots and no more than $188 is still bid north. This interest signals that packers are far from full and next week’s cash trade has a good shot to be higher. It also shows the packers confidence in managing the overall tempo of the trade.

CME cattle futures today have been quiet and a bull spread event. Aug LC may not have taken out last week’s high but it’s now over a buck premium to Oct and the spread chart boasts a pretty chart pattern to boot. A move back to 200 to 400 points over looks achievable as Aug LC rounds the bend to its final 4 trading weeks before expiation.

Those long the Aug LC 116 calls will likely be forced to buy the Aug if they want to catch the up as it appears highly unlikely a late rally will put them in the money.

There’s not much to add to today’s action. Next week ought to see follow-through to the upside in futures and cash and boxed beef values advance as well. The loin has been the weak link on the cutout, not unusual for this time of the year and the rib has yet to fully find its footing either.

Fed cattle marketings continue current with the most recent carcass weight data for steers at 868 pounds, the lowest for that week since 2013, and 12 pounds under a year ago.

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